Donald Trump did it again. The President of the United States threatened to impose new tariffs on Mexico. This time, Trump warned that if Mexico does not deliver the water that he claims rightfully belongs to Texas under the 1944 Water Treaty, he will take economic retaliation.

“THIS ENDS NOW! I will make sure Mexico does not violate our treaties or harm our Texas farmers,” he posted on his Truth Social account.

Donald Trump claims that Mexico owes Texas approximately 1.3 million acre-feet of water, which, according to the EFE agency, equals 160,290 cubic meters. As punishment for the alleged noncompliance, the Republican proposed imposing new tariffs — and even sanctions — on the Mexican government.

Just a few days ago, Mexico avoided the imposition of reciprocal tariffs. Economy Secretary Marcelo Ebrard stated that our country secured a preferential tariff treatment.

Unlike countries with which the United States has trade agreements — such as Chile, South Korea, Israel, or Australia — and which now face reciprocal tariffs ranging from 10% to 25%, Mexico remains exempt. This status makes the country a strategic partner in the new commercial order. “That is a great achievement,” Ebrard emphasized, “because when this started, there were going to be no exceptions.”

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How did Claudia Sheinbaum respond to Donald Trump’s threats?

In response to Trump’s statements, the President of Mexico, Claudia Sheinbaum, issued a diplomatic response. On her official X account (formerly Twitter), Sheinbaum reported that her administration has already developed a “comprehensive proposal to address the delivery of water to Texas under the 1944 treaty.”

“There have been three years of drought, and as water availability permits, Mexico has been complying,” she emphasized. She also noted that “very short-term actions” are being implemented and that the proposal was already sent to the U.S. Department of State’s Undersecretary.

The President also instructed the heads of Foreign Affairs, Agriculture, and the Environment to make immediate contact with their U.S. counterparts in hopes of finding a diplomatic solution. “I am confident that, as in other matters, an agreement will be reached,” she stated.

What does the 1944 Water Treaty say?

The “Treaty on the Utilization of Waters of the Colorado and Tijuana Rivers and of the Rio Grande,” signed on February 3, 1944, is a binational agreement between Mexico and the United States for the fair distribution of water from rivers that cross the border.

The treaty was ratified by the United States in April 1945 and by Mexico in September of the same year. Under the agreement, Mexico is entitled to 66% of the flow from certain rivers (Conchos, San Diego, San Rodrigo, Escondido, Salado, and the Las Vacas stream), while the United States receives 33%.

This translates to an annual average allotment of 4,317,210,000 cubic meters for Mexico and 2,158,605,000 cubic meters for the United States. One of the treaty’s primary goals is to ensure fair, balanced, and previously agreed-upon agricultural use of these international rivers.

What is the background of the water crisis between Mexico and Texas?

The recent tension is not an isolated event. For the past three years, northern Mexico has experienced severe drought, which has made it difficult to fully comply with the treaty. Nonetheless, the International Boundary and Water Commission (IBWC) has maintained constant communication with its U.S. counterpart to seek viable alternatives.

Sheinbaum emphasized that “the IBWC has continued working to identify mutually beneficial solutions for both countries,” and reiterated that Mexico has not deliberately failed to comply but that weather conditions have affected water availability.

Sobre el comunicado que recientemente publicó el presidente Trump, informo lo siguiente:

El día de ayer fue enviada al subsecretario del Departamento de Estado de Estados Unidos una propuesta integral para atender el envío de agua a Texas dentro del tratado de 1944, que incluye…

— Claudia Sheinbaum Pardo (@Claudiashein) April 11, 2025

What do the new tariffs proposed by Trump mean?

Although Trump has not specified which sectors would be affected, the threat of imposing new tariffs on Mexican products could seriously impact bilateral trade. The United States is Mexico’s main trading partner, and any restriction would affect key industries such as the automotive, agricultural, and manufacturing sectors.

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