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Pfizer expects to make $67–71 billion in 2023
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Brand’s COVID-19 vaccines brought in $7.1 billion in Q1 2023, compared to $56 billion in the previous year.
Pfizer, one of the leading COVID-19 vaccine manufacturers, reported a decrease in its revenue for the first quarter of 2023. The company’s revenue dropped to $18.3 billion, down from $25.6 billion in the same period in 2022. This decline was attributed to a significant reduction in the sales of its COVID-19 vaccines and COVID-19 pill, which brought in $7.1 billion compared to $56 billion in the previous year.
Decline in COVID-19 Vaccine Sales as a Result of Lower Demand
The drop in COVID-19 product sales was expected, as Pfizer and other COVID-19 vaccine manufacturers faced reduced demand and plunging effectiveness, coupled with lower levels of COVID-19 in several countries. The company expects that 65 million COVID-19 doses will be administered in 2023, down from 92 million in 2022. However, it projects an increase to 67 million in 2024, and if a planned combination COVID-19/influenza shot works out, officials project the administration of 77 million doses in 2025 and 98 million doses in 2026.
Sales Could Pick Up with Updated Vaccine Strains
Pfizer officials believe that sales will pick up if U.S. regulators follow through on plans to update the vaccine strains to target the variants in circulation. The company expects that updated shots will be rolled out each year during the fall, similar to how influenza vaccines are distributed in some countries. Pfizer officials predict that sales will trend more seasonally in 2023, given these dynamics, and significantly lower sales contributions from its COVID products in the second quarter compared to the first quarter.
Shift to a Commercial Model
The market for both the vaccines and Paxlovid, Pfizer’s COVID-19 pill, is shifting from largely government-driven to commercial this year, as governments stop buying or slow down the purchasing of COVID-19 products from companies like Pfizer. Pfizer expects that 2023 will be a transition year, as the virus continues to mutate, and there is a move from advance purchases under government contracts to more traditional supply arrangements in a commercial model for both Comirnaty and Paxlovid in the U.S.
Impact on Pfizer’s Revenue and Future Projections
The company expects to make $67–71 billion in 2023, significantly lower than the $100.3 billion made in 2022. The drop in COVID-19 vaccine sales is likely to impact the company’s revenue for the rest of the year. Pfizer officials predict that the COVID-19 vaccine’s seasonal trend in 2023 could affect the company’s revenue projections in the second quarter. The market’s current state for COVID-19 vaccines and Paxlovid is moving from government-driven to commercial this year, causing a transition period for Pfizer and other COVID-19 vaccine manufacturers.
