It’s the first time since 2003 that neither Lionel Messi, an eight-time winner, nor Cristiano Ronaldo, with five trophies, are on the nominee list.
With Karim Benzema and Luka Modric—the only other previous winners still active—also absent, a new winner in the men’s category is guaranteed.
In the women’s category, World Cup champion and Barcelona midfielder Aitana Bonmatí seeks to claim the award for the second consecutive year.
The men’s award is decided by a jury of journalists from the 100 highest-ranked countries in FIFA’s men’s ranking.
The women’s award is chosen by a jury of journalists from the 50 highest-ranked countries in FIFA’s women’s ranking.
The BBC consults sports analysts to predict who will win the 2024 Ballon d’Or.
Who will win the Men’s Ballon d’Or?
Rodri is a strong candidate after helping Manchester City win their fourth consecutive Premier League title and Spain to clinch the Euro Cup.
His teammate, Erling Haaland, is also in the running, as are Real Madrid players Vinícius Jr. and Jude Bellingham, notable for their La Liga and Champions League double.
– Mina Rzouki, European football journalist: “Why would you give it to Rodri? While he’s had a great season and has been crucial for Manchester City, he wasn’t Spain’s standout player. Vinícius Jr. was decisive in every major Champions League game, and that type of player should be rewarded.”
– Julien Laurens, French football journalist: “Kylian Mbappé is the best player in the world, but my vote would go to Rodri. He’s been the most important player for his team for two seasons, not an offensive one, but the smartest player in his position in the world. He’s been exceptional for his club and country and deserves the Ballon d’Or.”
– Kristof Terreur, Belgian football expert: “It’s the end of the era of stars, and the new names haven’t yet stood out to that level. I lean towards Vinícius Jr.”
– Guillem Balague, Spanish football expert: “Rodri has done everything he needed to do at the club and national levels. His role often goes unnoticed, but everyone recognizes his value. This is a great opportunity to reward a not-so-visible hero.”
Who will win the Women’s Ballon d’Or?
Three of the four winners since the Ballon d’Or began recognizing female footballers in 2018 are nominated again: Bonmatí (2023), her national teammate Alexia Putellas (2021, 2022), and Norwegian Ada Hegerberg (2018).
Five players from the U.S. Olympic team are also nominated: Trinity Rodman, Mallory Swanson, Lindsey Horan, Sophia Smith, and Alyssa Naeher.
– Guillem Balague: “Aitana Bonmatí controls the game, scores goals, makes assists, and has personality. She’s a role model for kids in the stands and on the field. She’s a great representative of football.”
– Fara Williams, former England midfielder: “I’d like to see Lindsey Horan in the top five, but my favorite would be Bonmatí. Her game intelligence is among the best; she controls Barcelona’s midfield and also contributes with goals and assists.”
– Jen Beattie, Bay FC defender: “My vote goes to Trinity Rodman. She’s had an incredible season, and what she did in the Olympics was impressive. She’s been pivotal for her club and country.”
– Ellen White, former England forward: “Trinity Rodman could win it, along with Sophia Smith or Aitana Bonmatí. I also want to recognize Barbra Banda, who had an amazing Olympics and is the second-highest scorer in the NWSL.”
